Heavy rains forecasted in major western and eastern parts of India


May 16, 2022 01:00 am Weather observed during past 24 hours:

♦️Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls occurred over Assam-Meghalaya; heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over Kerala and at isolated places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and heavy rainfall over Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura, Gangetic West Bengal, Rayalaseema and South Interior Karnataka. (for rainfall amount refer Annexure I)

♦️Maximum Temperatures (as on 14/05/2022) were 45-48°C over most parts of Rajasthan & Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi; in some parts of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, north Madhya Pradesh; in isolated pockets of east Vidarbha, Saurashtra-Kutch and 40-44°C over many parts of south Madhya Pradesh, west Vidarbha, Telangana and in isolated pockets of north Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, interior parts of Odisha and Jammu Division.

♦️Heat Wave to Severe Heat Wave conditions prevailed in most parts over West Rajasthan and Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi; in many parts over East Rajasthan, southern parts of East UP and northern parts of East MP; in some parts over Punjab. Heat Wave conditions observed in most parts over Northwest Madhya Pradesh and southwest Uttar Pradesh.


Advance of Southwest Monsoon into South Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands & adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours

♦️Southwest Monsoon likely to advance into South Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands & adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours.

♦️Due to strong cross equatorial flow from Bay of Bengal to Andaman Sea in lower tropospheric levels;

♦️Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls & thunderstorm/lightning/gusty winds very likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 5 days.

♦️ Squally weather with wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph also likely over Eastcentral Bay of Bengal adjoining north Andaman Sea during 17th-19th May.


Rainfall/thunderstorm Forecast & Warnings for rest parts of country:

♦️ Due to strong southwesterly winds from Bay of Bengal to northeast & adjoining East India at lower tropospheric levels;

♦️ Widespread light/moderate rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls very likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam-Meghalaya and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim during next 5 days. Isolated extremely heavy falls very likely over Meghalaya during 15th-17th May.

♦️Isolated heavy falls very likely over Mizoram & Tripura during 15th to 17th May.

♦️Isolated to scattered rainfall with isolated thunderstorm/lightning/gusty winds likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha during next 5 days.


A cyclonic circulation lies over South Interior Karnataka & neighbourhood extending upto middle tropospheric levels. It is very likely to persist over the same region with slight northward movement during next 5 days. Under the influence of this cyclonic circulation and strong lower level westerly flow from Arabian Sea:

♦️Fairly widespread light/moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls very likely over ghat areas of Tamilnadu and Coastal & South Interior Karnataka during next 5 days. Isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Coastal & South Interior Karnataka on 18th & 19th May.

♦️ Widespread light/moderate rainfall with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places & extremely heavy falls at isolated places very likely over Kerala-Mahe on 15th & 16th May and isolated heavy to very heavy falls during 17th-19th May.

♦️ Isolated to scattered rainfall activity with isolated thunderstorm/lightning/gusty winds very likely over Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and North Interior Karnataka during next 5 days.


Under the influence of a Western Disturbance along Long. 62° E & to the north of 30°N:

♦️Scattered to fairly widespread light/moderate rainfall with thunderstorm/lightning/gusty winds very likely over Jammu-Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during 15th to 18th May. Isolated hailstorm also likely over Himachal Pradesh on 16th & 17th May.

♦️ Isolated light rainfall with thunderstorm/lightning very likely over north Punjab, north Haryana and East Uttar Pradesh on 16th & 17th May.

♦️ Duststorm/Thunderstorm at isolated places very likely over Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan on 16th & 17th May.

♦️Dust Raising Winds with speed reaching 30-40 kmph at isolated places very likely over West Rajasthan during 15th-17th May.


Heat wave spells over Northwest & Central India

Maximum Temperature forecast:

♦️ No significant change in maximum temperatures very likely over many parts of Northwest & Central India during next 24 hours and fall by 2-4°C during subsequent 2 days.

♦️ No significant change in maximum temperatures very likely over Gujarat during next 3 days and rise by 2-3°C thereafter.

♦️ No significant change in maximum temperatures very likely over rest parts of the country.


Heat wave warnings:

♦️ Heat wave conditions in most/many parts with severe heat wave conditions in some parts over Rajasthan on 15th May with reduction in intensity & spatial distribution thereafter.

♦️ Heat Wave to severe heat wave conditions in many parts very likely over Punjab, Haryana-Delhi and in isolated pockets over south Uttar Pradesh on 15th with heat wave conditions in isolated pockets over south Uttar Pradesh on 16th May.

♦️ Heat Wave conditions in some parts very likely over Vidarbha on 15th & 16th and over northwest Madhya Pradesh on 15th and severe heat wave conditions in isolated pockets over northern parts of East Madhya Pradesh on 15th. Heat wave conditions in isolated pockets over Vidarbha & north Madhya Pradesh on 16th & 17th May and abate thereafter.

♦️ Heat Wave conditions in isolated/some pockets very likely over Vidarbha, Jharkhand during 15th-17th; over Himachal Pradesh on 15th May.